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Soccer
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2010 FIFA World Cup in South Africa
During the 2010 FIFA World Cup, this site displays the probabilities of each national team to win its group, to qualify for the round of 16/the quarter-finals/the semi-finals/the final, and to win the 2010 FIFA World Cup.Note that such probabilities change with each single match played. The figures on this page will be updated on a regular basis.
Group A, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Uruguay 3 2 1 0 4: 0 7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 55.6% 18.3% 7.2%
2. Mexico 3 1 1 1 3: 2 4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. South Africa 3 1 1 1 3: 5 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. France 3 0 1 2 1: 4 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group B, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Argentina 3 3 0 0 7: 1 9 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 55.0% 26.6% 12.9%
2. Korea Rep. 3 1 1 1 5: 6 4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. Greece 3 1 0 2 2: 5 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Nigeria 3 0 1 2 3: 5 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group C, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. USA 3 1 2 0 4: 3 5 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
2. England 3 1 2 0 2: 1 5 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. Slovenia 3 1 1 1 3: 3 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Algeria 3 0 1 2 0: 2 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group D, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Germany 3 2 0 1 5: 1 6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 45.0% 19.4% 8.5%
2. Ghana 3 1 1 1 2: 2 4 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 44.4% 12.2% 4.0%
3. Australia 3 1 1 1 3: 6 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Serbia 3 1 0 2 2: 3 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group E, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Netherlands 3 3 0 0 5: 1 9 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 42.9% 28.2% 14.7%
2. Japan 3 2 0 1 4: 2 6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. Denmark 3 1 0 2 3: 6 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Cameroon 3 0 0 3 2: 5 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group F, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Paraguay 3 1 2 0 3: 1 5 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 25.6% 9.1% 3.0%
2. Slovakia 3 1 1 1 4: 5 4 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. New Zealand 3 0 3 0 2: 2 3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Italy 3 0 2 1 4: 5 2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group G, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Brazil 3 2 1 0 5: 2 7 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 57.1% 41.3% 24.4%
2. Portugal 3 1 2 0 7: 0 5 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. Ivory Coast 3 1 1 1 4: 3 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Korea DPR 3 0 0 3 1:12 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Group H, ranking list (1 July 2010):
matches w d l goals points group winner|round of 16|quarter-finals|semi-finals|final|world champion
1. Spain 3 2 0 1 4: 2 6 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 74.4% 44.9% 25.4%
2. Chile 3 2 0 1 3: 2 6 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
3. Switzerland 3 1 1 1 1: 1 4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
4. Honduras 3 0 1 2 0: 3 1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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How to read these figures. Brazil and Spain are the favourites for winning this tournament. Both of them have a chance of about 25 percent to win the World Cup.
© Roger Kaufmann 1990/2010 [please do not ignore this!]
The above probabilities were calculated with the software DSA (Dynamic Sports Analysis), developed by the mathematician Roger Kaufmann.
Last Update: 1 July 2010.
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